1^st Issue of July 2009

Current New Homes Market

6-Month Spec Count

The spec inventory count is now at 1,573 units, 916 less than six months ago. The spec count has dropped significantly in the past five weeks. It has dropped below the historical (before the current market conditions) record number of 2,400.

What we count as specs are the individual properties which each subdivision chooses to report to us to be included in our system for ARMLS affiliates.  The degree of completion will vary from builder to builder and from one subdivision to another. We believe our count is very conservative, as some subdivisions do not report all of their specs to us.

6-Month Subdivision Count

Now at 620, there are 205 less subdivisions than six months ago. The number of new home subdivisions continues to decline.

The subdivision count data we report comes from the Ultimate New Homes (UNH) database, which covers the entire Phoenix metro market area and approximates the area covered by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS).  Ultimate New Homes covers all of Maricopa County (74% of UNH subs) and significant portions of Pinal County (23% of UNH subs) as well as a few locations outside of these counties (primarily in Yavapai County) (3% of UNH subs). 

The UNH database covers both single family detached and attached homes.  Subdivisions and developments are included in the UNH database when they:

• Co-broke with Realtors®
• Typically build standardized plans (a tract type product)
• Have at least five lots or homes available for sale in that particular subdivision
• Are willing to provide and update detailed subdivision information
• Have established pricing for the homes within the subdivision

This database is very comprehensive relative to tract construction of single family detached homes.  In addition to new attached homes, a few selected condo conversions are also included within the UNH system.

New Home Market Statistics Chart

The following chart shows the last six months new home activity measures for the greater Phoenix Metropolitan area per the Ultimate New Homes Database:

*The data above reflects numbers from every other week for the past six months.

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