IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

February 2010

 

 

January ARMLS Reports

 

Resale Listings

 

The listing count reported in the January Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS1) Reports, which were released on February 16th, was 41,506—up 1,797 listings from the December reports.  In March 2009 the listing quantity dropped below 50,000 for the first time in 27 months.  After three months of rapid decline and falling to a level below 40,000, the listing count has been creeping back up over the last seven months to this month’s level.  The current level remains substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003. 

 

Resale Sales

 

ARMLS-reported sales for January dropped 24.4% from the December sales figure with a decrease of 1,872.  On an annually adjusted basis sales were up 1,053 or about 22% from January 2009.  This is the ninteenth consecutive month that there has been an increase in sales over the same month in the prior year. 

 

January’s sales quantity is typically lower than December’s, so this month’s change is following the normal calendar cycle.  In the normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.

 

 

 

Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports.  In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies.  Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.

 

A Two Year Perspective

 

The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.

 

 

 

 

Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend

 

Sales, when compared to one year ago, rose for the eighteenth month in a row.  This increase of 2,137 is illustrated in the chart below.

 

 

 

 

The above chart is divided into market condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity during the same month in the previous year.  Orange reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales; and Red indicates slowing market activity.  Blue designates the months with sales volume increases while prices were falling or stable.

 

Analysis of these figures clearly shows the following:

1.    From January 2003 through September 2005, sales increased every month when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back to orange).

2.    Every sales number from October 2005 through May 2008- thirty-two months - reflects a decrease in sales from the same month in the year prior (red).

3.      Starting in June 2008 each month has shown an increase in MLS sales from the same month one year prior (blue).

 

 

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1 (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service empasses most of Maricopa and Pinal Counties.