IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

December 2009

 

 

November ARMLS Reports

 

Resale Listings

 

The listing count reported in the November Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS1).  Reports, which were released on December 16th, was 40,372—up 1,060 listings from the October reports.  In March the listing quantity dropped below 50,000 for the first time in 27 months.  The declining trend has continued, taking the count to less than 40,000 for the first time in three years. However, this current level remains substantially above the record level of listings prior to January 2005 which was 30,046 listings in February 2003. 

 

Resale Sales

 

ARMLS-reported sales for November dropped 7.7% from the October sales figure with a decrease of 627.  On an annually adjusted basis sales were up 3,077 or almost 70% from November 2008.  This is the seventeenth consecutive month that there has been an increase in sales over the same month in the prior year. 

 

November’s sales quantity is typically very close to October’s, so this month’s change is following the normal calendar cycle.  In the normal calendar cycle, sales tend to be highest in the summer and then gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.  The winter months are consistently the lowest in sales.

 

 

 

Our sources of data for these displays are the ARMLS reports.  In these, there are three months, January – March 2005, for which we have not shown listing data because of apparent discrepancies.  Additionally, ARMLS notes that the listing information for March through August 2002 may contain errors, but we have chosen to display this reasonable data above.

 

A Two Year Perspective

 

The graph below displays the same data as above, but focuses on only the most recent 24 months.

 

 

 

 

Adjusted Monthly Sales Trend

 

Sales, when compared to one year ago, rose for the seventeenth month in a row.  This increase of 3,077 is illustrated in the chart below.

 

 

 

 

The above chart is divided into market condition segments by comparing current sales activity to the sales activity during the same month in the previous year.  Orange reflects relatively normal conditions; Green shows higher than average sales; and Red indicates slowing market activity. 

 

Analysis of these figures clearly shows the following:

1.     From January 2003 through September 2005, sales increased every month when compared to that month in the year prior (from orange to green, then back to orange).

2.     Every sales number from October 2005 through May 2008- thirty-two months - reflects a decrease in sales from the same month in the year prior (red).

3.     Starting in June 2008 each month has shown an increase in MLS sales from the same month one year prior (blue).

 

 

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1 (ARMLS) Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service empasses most of Maricopa and Pinal Counties.

 

Note:  This report was prepared utilizing numbers from an adjusted August 2008 report published by ARMLS after the distribution of the August In-Depth Analysis Newsletter.  In all cases the impact of these adjusted numbers is less than 1%.