In-Depth Analysis

October 2009

Market-at-a-Glance

The Market-at-a-Glance section contains an overall summary of the trends described in our detailed articles.

A recap of the current market indicators are as follows:

1. Resale Listings – 38,340

a. The September listing count increased by 255 (0.7%) from the August count. This is the third consecutive month in the last ten in which the listing count has not dropped and indicates that resale inventory is stabilizing. During the seven months prior to this plateau the count had dropped 19,010 (a 34% decline).

2. Resale Sales – 7,907

a. Resale sales volume is up from this month in 2008 by 1,728 (27.97%) - (the 2008 figure was weak because of the credit crunch).

b. Resale sales volume is up 4,486 sales from this month in 2007 – (the 2007 figure was extremely weak because of the beginning of the credit crunch).

c. Resale sales volume is up 3,301 from this month in 2006.

d. Resale sales volume is down 1,039 from this month in 2005 (the 2005 figure was very inflated by speculator activity).

e. Resale sales volume is down 769 from this month in 2004 (the 2004 figure was also inflated by speculator activity).

f. Resale sales volume is up 1,039 from this month in 2003.

g. Resale sales volume is up 2,365 from this month in 2002.

3. Median Resale Sales Price - $130,000

a. The median September sales price increased $4,500 from August.

b. The median sales price is $125,000 below the June 2007 level.

c. The appreciation rate for the last twenty-seven months (June 2007 to present) is a negative 21.79% on an annualized basis.

4. New Home Market

a. The number of New Home specs on October 16^th had decreased by 45 from the September 4th count to 1,393. The record level was in October 2006 at 4,692. Prior to February 2006 the record was 2,400 homes.

b. The number of new home subdivisions selling declined for the twenty-seventh straight month. This month was down by 34 to 531.

5. REO – The percentage of resale properties sold which were Lender Owned dropped 3.0% to 47.8%.

Over the past few months spec inventory has continued to creep down – well into the normal range. I believe we are moving into a spec shortage.

Resale sales have achieved a level near or above the 2001 level for fourteen consecutive months after being below the 2001 level. It appears that the median resale price has reached bottom and prices have turned upward, but there will need to be a lot of recovery before the market returns to a healthy balance. The wildcards concerning market recovery are the general economy and the foreclosure situation.

The general press is reporting housing market information that is six to nine months old. The In-Depth Analysis Newsletter provides current information that you need to serve your buyers and sellers and to help them understand what is happening in today’s market.

Side Note

I believe there are the best deals available in the real estate market that we may ever see. If I were an investment counselor (I am not), I would say that if you have the need and the money, look for the deals and buy now!

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