In-Depth Analysis

May 2009

 

 

Market-at-a-Glance

The Market-at-a-Glance section contains an overall summary of the trends described in our detailed articles.

A recap of the current market indicators are as follows:

1.     Resale Listings – 44,165

a.     The April listing count decreased by 5,578 (11.2%) from the March count. The listing count has been dropping for the last five months after being plateaued for the 20 months prior to that. 

2.     Resale Sales – 8,564

a.     Resale sales volume is up from this month in 2008 by 3,689 (75.6%) - (the 2008 figure was extremely weak because of the credit crunch).

b.     Resale sales volume is up 3,037 sales from this month in 2007 – (the 2007 figure was weakened because of the beginning of the credit crunch). 

c.     Resale sales volume is up 1,800 from this month in 2006.  

d.     Resale sales volume is down 1,036 from this month in 2005 (the 2005 figure was very inflated by speculator activity).

e.     Resale sales volume is down 408 from this month in 2004 (the 2004 figure was inflated by speculator activity).

f.      Resale sales volume is up 1,100 from this month in 2003. 

g.     Resale sales volume is up 2,433 from this month in 2002.

3.     Median Resale Sales Price - $115,300

a.     The median April sales price is down by $4,600 from March.

b.     The median sales price is $139,700 below the June 2007 level. 

c.     The appreciation rate for the last twenty-one months (June 2007 to present) is a negative 29.9% on an annualized basis. 

4.     New Home Market

a.     The number of New Home specs on May 15th decreased by 339 from the April 15th count to 1,694.  The record level was in October 2006 at 4,692.  Prior to February 2006 the record was 2,400 homes.

b.     The number of new home subdivisions selling declined for the eighth straight month; down by 53 to 670 (the largest number ever recorded prior to 2006 was 813 in May 2003).   

5.     REO – The percentage of resale properties sold which were Lender Owned dropped one percent to 67%. 

Over the past few months the spec inventory has dropped back into the normal range, and it is still falling rapidly.  I believe we will soon be facing a spec shortage.   

Resale sales have achieved a level near or above the 2001 level for eleven consecutive months after being below the 2001 level.  Contrary to what you are reading elsewhere, I believe that the median resale price is bumping bottom.  We are very near to a price turning point, but there will need to be a lot of recovery before the market returns to a healthy balance.  The wildcards concerning market recovery are the general economy and the credit crisis.

 

The general press is reporting housing market information that is six to nine months old.  The In-Depth Analysis Newsletter provides current information that you need to serve your buyers and sellers and to help them understand what is happening in todayÕs market.

Side Note

 I believe there are the best deals available in the real estate market that we may ever see.  If I were an investment counselor (I am not), I would say that if you have the need and the money, look for the deals and buy now!

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