IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

October 2008

Resale Listings

Real-time Information

ARMLS compiles monthly data for reports to be released on about the 15^th of each month. In this rapidly changing market, utilizing only the Arizona Regional Monthly Listing Service (ARMLS) Sales Reports has the potential of delaying the timely identification of changes in the market. You need to know what has happened since those reports were compiled to assess if there were any trends developing in late September and early October. The chart below is a perfect example of the value of this Real-time information. Note the significant drop in the listing count just before the New Year. This is typical listing count behavior between Christmas and New Year’s and follows the normal calendar cycle.

As you can see from the graph below, at the end of last year listing fell off, but has since returned to a steady growth pattern.

Resale Listings October 16, 2007 – October 16, 2008

The graphs below and above were compiled using daily figures of Internet MLS listings. The quantities do not exactly match ARMLS Report numbers, because a few ARMLS members exclude their listings from the Internet, but the patterns of the two sources are very similar. Because the actual numbers differ slightly, these graphs have been designed to show no quantities on the vertical scale.

Resale Listing Numbers

The twelve-month graph below is also based on a real-time representation of what is happening in the listing arena.

Listing Trend October 16, 2007 – October 16, 2008

Commentary

The graphs above illustrate a pattern at the end of each month, i.e. there is a noticeable dip in listings.  This is most likely due to a larger percentage of the listing contracts expiring at month’s end.  The dip is typically short-lived and lasts only a few days to a week. In addition to the dip at the end of each month, there is also a significant dip just before the New Year. The drop in listings over the winter holidays occurs yearly, and can be considered typical listing count behavior.

The past couple months indicate that we may be seeing a leveling off of listing numbers.  However, even when listing inventory is stabilized, it will take many months before we will return to normal market conditions.

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS keeps you up to date on Real-time Resale Listings. See our related Resale Articles in this issue of IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS.

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