In-Depth Analysis

September 2008

Market-at-a-Glance

The Market-at-a-Glance section contains an overall summary of the trends described in our detailed articles.

A recap of the current market indicators are as follows:

1. Resale Listings – 54,043

a. The August listing count increased by 497 (+.9%) from the July count. The listing count has been plateaued for about the last 18 months.

2. Resale Sales – 5,720

a. Resale sales volume is up from this month in 2007 by 1,370 (31.5%).

b. Resale sales volume is down 395 sales from this month in 2006.

c. Resale sales volume is down 4,311 from this month in 2005 (the 2005 figure was very inflated by speculator activity).

d. Resale sales volume is down 3,272 from this month in 2004 (the 2004 figure was very inflated by speculator activity).

e. Resale sales volume is down 1,968 from this month in 2003.

f. Resale sales volume is down 77 from this month in 2002.

g. Resale sales volume is down 8 from this month in 2001.

3. Median Resale Sales Price - $185,000

a. The median August sales price is down by $5,000 from July 2008.

b. The median sales price has declined $73,000 in the last ten months.

c. The median sales price is $75,000 below the September 2005 level.

d. The appreciation rate for the last thirty-five months (September 2005 to present) is a negative 9.9% on an annualized basis.

4. New Home Market

a. The number of New Home specs in September decreased by180 from the August count to 2,484*. The record level was in October 2006 at 4,692. Prior to February 2006 the record was 2,400 homes.

b. The number of new home subdivisions selling declined for the tenth straight month; down by 23 to 925 (the largest number ever recorded prior to 2006 was 813 in May 2003).

The spec inventory remains well above norm. That level is still substantially above the level that has historically been healthy for our market. It will take more time and restraint to get the inventory level back into a normal range for our market.

Resale sales have achieved a level near or above the 2002 level for two consecutive months after being below the 2002 level for sixteen months. I believe that the median resale price is within a couple of months of reaching its low. We are very near to a turning point, but there will need to be a lot of recovery before the market returns to a healthy balance. The wildcard concerning market recovery is the credit crisis, but I am not qualified to access that impact.

The general press is reporting housing market information that is six to nine months old. The In-Depth Analysis Newsletter provides current information that you need to serve your buyers and sellers and to help them understand what is happening in today’s market.

Side Note

*I personally believe the quantity of New Home specs we are reporting is only about one half of the true number – making the actual count 4,500 - 5,500.