IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS

August 2006

 

Current New Homes Market

 

6-Month Spec Count

 

What we count as specs are the individual properties that each subdivision chooses to report to us to be included in our system for ARMLS affiliates.  The degree of completion will vary from builder to builder and from one subdivision to another.  We believe our count is on the conservative side, as some subdivisions do not report all of their specs to us.

 

The spec inventory count is now at 4,880 units, 2,074 more than only six months ago.  The market has more than doubled the previous record of 2,400 (prior to January 2006) by 2,480. 

 

 

 

6-Month Subdivision Count

 

The subdivision count data we report comes from the Ultimate New Homes (UNH) database, which covers the entire Phoenix metro market area and approximates the area covered by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS).  Ultimate New Homes covers all of Maricopa County (74% of UNH subs) and significant portions of Pinal County (23% of UNH subs) as well as a few location outside of these counties (primarily in Yavapai County) (3% of UNH subs). 

 

The UNH database covers both single family detached and attached homes.  Subdivisions and developments are included in the UNH database when they:

  • Co-broke with RealtorsŪ
  • Typically build standardized plans (a tract type product)
  • Have at least five lots or homes available for sale in that particular subdivision
  • Are willing to provide and update detailed subdivision information
  • Have established pricing for the homes within the subdivision

This database is quite comprehensive relative to tract construction of single family detached homes.  In addition to new attached homes a few selected condo conversions are included within the UNH system.

 

Now at 951, there are 196 more subdivisions than six months ago.  Three and a half months ago the subdivision count exceeded the previous record of 813 set in May 2003.  The number of active new home communities continues to climb steadily. 

 

New Home Market Statistics Chart

 

The following chart shows historical activity for the last six months in the greater Phoenix Metropolitan area per the Ultimate New Homes Database:

*The data above reflects numbers from every other week in the past six months.

 

Be sure to check out our related new article, New Homes: The Five-Year Picture, in this issue of the In-Depth Analysis.

 

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